Professor of history at American University in Washington, Allan Lichtman has created a prediction system of voting Americans for president. Since 1984, he has never cheated. This time, the winner is
Predict Americans vote in the presidential election. This is what every four years, and unerringly, Allan Lichtman, a history professor at American University in Washington, with a methodology devised in the early 1980s.
According to him, Donald Trump should prevail, Tuesday, November 8, facing Hillary Clinton . Not because his economic program please more voters than the Democratic candidate. Not because of the case of emails that poisons the campaign of Hillary Clinton for months. Not because he ran a better campaign than its rival on the field . Allan Lichtman, the possible victory of Donald Trump may be the result of the historical context.
“The presidential election is actually a clash between stability and political upheaval, says Professor in his book, ‘The Keys to the White House’. The campaign, advertisements, speeches, conventions of both parties, the three debates all this does not matter. “
Clearly, for Allan Lichtman, who created this prediction system by studying all the presidential elections in the United States between 1860 and 1980, the presidential election is a referendum on the ruling party. Every four years, Americans will therefore not make a choice between two candidates and two different programs but would rather go vote, wondering if they still want to trust or not the party occupying the White House.
This prediction system operates through thirteen statements – the famous keys – for the ruling party. Among them, assertions about the political situation of the country, the state of the economy or the personality of the candidates. If at least six of them are false, it is the party in opposition who wins the presidential election. If, conversely, at least eight statements are correct, the ruling party is renewed.
An election that could undermine the “keys”
This year, Allan Lichtman estimates that six “key” is lost by Democrats, is the smallest total needed to get a win for Donald Trump.
The result should be particularly tight. And for the first time since he indulges in this game predictions, formulating two reserves, Allan Lichtman admits he could be wrong. Among the six statements considered false by the professor, one of them could indeed switch, making change, hence the prediction.
“The key for the candidate of a third party is only valid if Gary Johnson collects at least 5% of the vote, he told the Washington Post . However, it may do less well and that change the prediction.”
The second reservation concerns Allan Lichtman Donald Trump, a candidate who challenges in his rationality. “We have never seen a candidate like him who could upset historical models at work since the election of Abraham Lincoln in 1860, he says. He could lose this election even as the historical circumstances play into his favor.”
And that’s what makes this presidential historic election. While with another Republican candidate, comments have been dominated by the prospect of seeing for the first time a woman become president of the United States, the election of Donald Trump would mark perhaps an even more significant change. “This election has the potential to completely reshuffle the cards of American policy and clear all display”, and believes Allan Lichtman, who is well aware that, at the same time, its “key” in their current form, could have lived.