This is a historic treaty still lacks manual: the states of the world are gathered from Monday in Marrakech to agree on the implementation of the Paris Agreement, which for the first time saw the international commitment against climate irregularity.
In those early days, the 15,000 participants at the annual UN conference – negotiators, politicians, scientists, NGOs, companies … – should have broadly the spirit of the Atlantic, where US presidential cheek.
While the Republican Donald Trump has already assured that he would attack the agreement if elected, the responsible UN climate was said on Sunday “willing to work with / the future (e) President ( e) “.
“We hope we can have a very positive and constructive relationship,” said the press Patricia Espinosa. The US (second largest emitter of greenhouse gases, sources of warming) “is one of our most important partners, their participation in this agreement is crucial.”
“Now the Paris agreement entered into force” Friday, she recalled: “And we are all compelled by this commitment.”
The Paris agreement adopted in late 2015, signed by 192 States and ratified so far by 100 of them (representing nearly 70% of global emissions), is now “the fight roadmap against climate change” emphasizes Manuel Pulgar-Vidal, Peruvian minister who chaired the COP20, now head of WWF.
But at the COP22 in Marrakech, the negotiators will have to begin to agree on a list of procedures, which will make a success or not in the final in Paris.
Their first task will be, according to the French negotiator Laurence Tubiana, to “complete the rules” of this complex pact that includes in particular a collective objective (not to exceed 2 ° C warming), national action promises (to insufficient this stage) and the general principles to revise upward.
In practice this will mean solving a number of difficult issues: how to monitor greenhouse gas emissions of each country? how to ensure the financing of climate policies in developing countries promised by the North? What will be the criteria of “compensation” in poor countries affected by climate impacts, droughts, floods and other storms?
“The COP22 is really a COP for the implementation and action,” said US negotiator Jonathan Pershing reporters.
The current consensus is to reach agreement on these subjects by 2018.
– Bridging the gap –
An overall review of national commitments to reduce emissions – mainly from burning oil, gas and coal – is also expected in 2018, on a voluntary basis.
The achievement of current plans would avoid catastrophic + 4/5 ° C expected in the absence of climate policies, but puts the world down a hugely dangerous path of + 3 ° C. Hence the need to strengthen these commitments.
“We need to bridge that gap,” says Ms Tubiana: “The great battle of the next two years is about how we can get countries to increase their ambition.”
The Paris agreement calls for limiting the warming-short of 2 ° C compared to before the Industrial Revolution, or even 1.5 ° C, a huge challenge.
On the ground, many signals show that change is underway and the transition to cleaner energy began.
2015 was a record year for investments in renewable energy, particularly in emerging countries.
Companies – present as ever at COP – begin themselves to play their part, driven by the need to anticipate the shift to a low-carbon economy.
But at the same time, scientists continue to sound the alarm. After two record years, 2016 should again be the hottest ever recorded on Earth, and concentrations of greenhouse gases are increasing.
“If we do not start to take additional steps now (to reduce emissions), we end up crying in front of a preventable human tragedy,” warned Thursday Erik Solheim, Director of United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) .
In Marrakech, the second week of the COP, sixty heads of state and government will come on November 15, strengthen the political momentum.