The barrel is worth more than 60 dollars. A psychological threshold was crossed on the oil markets, and it was confirmed two sessions in a row, contrary to the previous episodes of increase. We are moving from a surplus oil market to a tense market. The price curve does not say anything else, it has just reversed: until now the available oil immediately was cheaper than the one that was delivered later, which encouraged to stock.
Henceforth, the oil available immediately is the best valued, which will deflate the stocks, the objective precisely of OPEC and its allies outside OPEC.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia are winning their bet. The official statements of these countries have fueled the current price increase over the last few weeks until the Saudi Crown Prince reiterated his commitment last week to continue the effort to reduce supply. oil OPEC-non-OPEC beyond next spring, probably nine more months. The mystery is lifted on the content of the next summit of the organization in Vienna, in a month.
Oil markets are reassured, they buy oil. Including speculative investment funds, which are massively back. They observe the global recovery context, and the rise in oil consumption faster than the increase in crude supply. For the United States has recently slowed down the pace of new drilling, companies obeying the dividend requirements of their shareholders.
The disruption of exports to northern Iraq has also played a role in accelerating the rise in oil prices, without causing them to fall back when Baghdad increased its export capacity from the south.
One more sign that the deep reversal of the oil market is more at work than geopolitics in the revival of prices.